7 Comments

Thanks for the article.

One interesting thing is that during the Cold War, the US government would often support and promote political actors and systems that were not free-market capitalism but about more (right-wing) government control and nationalisation

Expand full comment

the way you've managed to break down a complex economy in simple terms is awesome for the reader!

a very sobering explanation on what seems to be a "breakthrough" in mainstream narrative.

a few questions:

under what conditions can fiat and cryptocurrencies co-exist in a nation-state economy? how would the cross-currencies dynamics play out for this to be feasible, stable and suited for a nation's economic growth? or is crypto to be transacted solely by Internet users (and a hypothetical, emergent network-state)?

fenómeno Frank!! un abrazo grande.

Expand full comment

Dani! Thank you!! I think the main use-case for BTC right now is a digital store of value, like gold, but without the custody and transportation costs. Individuals, firms, and possibly even central banks can consider putting it on their balance sheet as a hedge against other asset classes. The increasingly strong correlation with the U.S. stock market reduces the value of this hedge, but still. This is *very* different from using BTC as a national currency though, which is what El Salvador is looking to do. I just don't see what problem it solves.. Gran abrazo Dani!!

Expand full comment

Agreed — I think the nature of cryptocurrencies (especially BTC) makes them not very compatible with nation-states (which is why their use-cases don’t seem so enticing for now).

That’s because, fundamentally, they’re a direct threat and an alternative to state governed money.

Their real use-case is yet to come, imo! We’ll see :)

Expand full comment

you've nailed the root problem of el salvador's bleak socio-economic projection, although i think you missed one key factor to the five point vicious cycle you illustrated above and that is CORRUPTION. i don't know if it becomes a sixth component of the vicious cycle or if it's rather the genesis that later manifests in the five cause-and-effect arrows as different but interrelated representations of that same root problem. to add a little more background and context to your brilliant summary of the recent economic history of el salvador, we have to include the role corruption has played in the social, political and economic developments of the country's recent history that have inevitably lead us to this point of stable, low-growth equillibrium you describe. and that is precisely why the corrupt president of el salvador and his corrupt government play such a key role which they've capped with the imposition of the highly unpopular bitcoin law and their quest to apply revolving debt techniques to temporarily easy the country's short term debt woes. the current president of el salvador was elected on the hope and promise of reversing all the damage done by previous corrupt governments and basically ran on an anti-corruption ticket that proved successful only to default on his promise and become just as corrupt, or perhaps even more so because of his deliberate cynicism; than previous public officials. adding also to the debt pressure crisis is also the fact that the government is at very high risk of defaulting on its obligations to the pensions fund payments. since the current government of el salvador operates like a mafia for all practical purposes, it also becomes worrying that they may have actually agreed to a pact with the local gangs and organized crime and now they're being extorted by these criminal groups and are defaulting on their extorsion payments as well and that is why the sudden hike in the country's homicide rate, to which the government has responded by implementing martial law. so much for freedom for bitcoiners who may consider el salvador some exotic, tropical libertarian utopia.

Expand full comment

Thanks for the comment! Regarding corruption, it's kind of hard to tell if it's a cause of low growth, or a consequence, or both, or just something unrelated that's happening in the background. Clearly its a big issue, but I'm not sure what the best way to think about it is. In general, I like to think of corruption as a consequence of low state capacity or incapable states, but don't know if that's a good framing here. Anyways, very interesting point!! Thank you!

Expand full comment

I agree that BTC "cannot fix the economy" but it can indeed make a real difference and improvement for millions of individuals regarding trade, business, entrepreneurship etc. I mean, there is not currency that can "fix the economy", just as Euro did not "fix" the EU economy but made it easier for many economic behaviours

Expand full comment